Hurricane Joaquin and South Carolina Catastrophic Flooding (Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2015)

memphishogfan · Oct 01, 2015, 04:24 PM

I saw a Donald Trump campaign spin off hat the other day with "Make the GFS Great Again" on it.

Thundersnow · Oct 02, 2015, 02:22 PM

Models painting an ugly picture for a potential flooding event over South Carolina this weekend. Joaquin plays a part, but there's also a trough and upper level low hanging over that area (sort of a "perfect storm" like scenario in a sense). Some places may get over a foot of rain... which would be May 2010 bad in some of those places.

Thundersnow · Oct 02, 2015, 02:27 PM

Just to give a taste of the caliber of wording coming out of NWS offices on this event...

QuoteFLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1131 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...VERY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA...

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...

.A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE NEAR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER
AREA OF GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXTREMELY HIGH MOISTURE WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PARTLY BECAUSE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DISPLAYING AN
EASTERLY 50-KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET ABOUT 5000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE
FEEDING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY BECOME EXTREME WITH PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
FLASH FLOODING RESULTING.

RobD · Oct 02, 2015, 02:42 PM

Any suggestions on a site to follow SC weather? The youngest lives in Charleston so I'm following Rob Fowler but I'd love to find a site like this but for there. TIA!

Thundersnow · Oct 02, 2015, 03:05 PM

NWS Columbia, SC: http://www.weather.gov/cae/

Thundersnow · Oct 02, 2015, 03:08 PM

Quote from: RobD on Oct 02, 2015, 02:42 PM
Any suggestions on a site to follow SC weather? The youngest lives in Charleston so I'm following Rob Fowler but I'd love to find a site like this but for there. TIA!

If you're asking about a weather forum dedicated to SC, I don't know that there is one. There are some regional weather forums that would discuss it, but I don't know of one dedicated to the area like we have here at TNWX.

dwagner88 · Oct 02, 2015, 04:29 PM

The latest GFS has between 15-20 inches at my grandmothers house in Greenville. The Clemson game is going to be fascinating to watch tomorrow. I think Gameday is there broadcasting. Also wort mentioning that most of the short term models are insisting that everybody east of the plateau has heavy rain this weekend. This is a considerable shift west since yesterday. I've already gotten 3" here since yesterday morning.

dwagner88 · Oct 02, 2015, 08:13 PM

Look at the firehose of moisture aimed right up the Savannah River:

Highslide Image Viewer

Thundersnow · Oct 03, 2015, 09:19 AM

Major flooding already underway in the Charleston area... reports of water entering homes.

Joaquin is only indirectly related to this and seems that it will stay well off shore. There is a moisture fetch though from the outer band of Joaquin into the system affecting the SE.

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dwagner88 · Oct 03, 2015, 09:49 AM

Quote from: Thundersnow on Oct 03, 2015, 09:19 AM
Major flooding already underway in the Charleston area... reports of water entering homes.

Joaquin is only indirectly related to this and seems that it will stay well off shore. There is a moisture fetch though from the outer band of Joaquin into the system affecting the SE.

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High tide isn't until 1 pm there. That area already has terrible drainage with ordinary summer storms at high tide. Medieval storm drains in the historic district.

snowdog · Oct 03, 2015, 11:40 AM

Quote from: dwagner88 on Oct 03, 2015, 09:49 AM
High tide isn't until 1 pm there. That area already has terrible drainage with ordinary summer storms at high tide. Medieval storm drains in the historic district.

Medieval? Think that may be the wrong time period.

Navywxman · Oct 03, 2015, 11:48 AM

Special advisory: 155mph now.

dwagner88 · Oct 03, 2015, 12:41 PM

Quote from: snowdog on Oct 03, 2015, 11:40 AM
Medieval? Think that may be the wrong time period.

Meh. The 1700's weren't that much better. The bones of that city predate the industrial revolution.

Can't believe the huge jump in strength this afternoon. It was looking pretty ragged last night.

dwagner88 · Oct 03, 2015, 04:07 PM

Latest GFS has an additional 15" of rain in Charleston. End of days type flooding down there. HRRR indicates that the heavy stuff will enter SE TN between 10 PM tonight and 5 AM Sunday. The radar indicates that the upstate of SC hasn't had all that much heavy rain yet, but WPC insists that the radar beam isn't picking up on the tropical rain correctly and is underestimating ground truth by 50%. Very strong wording in their latest excessive rainfall outlook. Some areas are already at 1000 year rainfall levels.

cgauxknox · Oct 05, 2015, 09:36 AM

From NC Piedmont Weather (thought this was interesting):

Our thoughts and prayers go out to those in SC. Most areas in a line from Charleston to Columbia have received between 15-25" of rain with this now departing weather system. For perspective as to how much rainfall that is here is the formula. An average of 15" and 7 counties=10,317 sq.mi; 15"=0.000237mi;

0.000237*10,317=2.44 cu mi.=2.69 TRILLION GALLONS. This left me beyond words. This was the worst flooding event in history for the state of SC.