Severe WX - 1/20-/1-21 2010

toastido · Jan 20, 2010, 09:04 AM

Don't know that there will be much, but the SPC has highlighted a risk for today (1/20) through tomorrow (1/21) for Western TN, and southern middle TN.

Here are the current risk outlines for today and tomorrow:

Today:

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Today (Torn):

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Today (Wind):

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Today(Hail):

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Today(Text):

Quote
SPC AC 201300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO THE SRN
OZARKS/LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL SRN STREAM JET PATTERN...MARKING SRN FRINGE OF VAST NE
PACIFIC UPR LOW...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. LEAD IMPULSE IN LONG
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE
MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY AS STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW EXITING AZ
CONTINUES E TO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE SYSTEM LIKELY WILL AMPLIFY
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER WRN AR EARLY THU AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS
OVER THE SRN RCKYS AHEAD OF POTENT PACIFIC IMPULSE NOW EVOLVING NEAR
150W. IN THE MEAN TIME...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING 125W APPEARS
TO BE SPLITTING MORE OR LESS AS ITS PREDECESSORS DID EARLIER THIS
WEEK. A SUBSTANTIAL PART OF THE SPLIT SHOULD HEAD ESE TOWARD THE PT
CONCEPTION AREA LATER TODAY... WHILE THE NRN PART MOVES NNE ALONG
THE ORE CST.

AT LWR LVLS...SATELLITE AND SFC DATA SUGGEST THAT SEASONABLY MOIST
AIR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S F/ WILL SPREAD NNE FROM
E TX INTO THE SRN OZARKS AND LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ...ALONG
LEFTOVER BAND OF SWLY LOW LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW
IN MO. THIS MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
THU AS SWLY LLJ REFORMS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPR IMPULSE.

...LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST INTO THE SRN OZARKS/LWR TN VLY...
ELEVATED STORMS NOW OVER THE LWR TN AND MID MS VLYS SHOULD WEAKEN
LATER THIS MORNING AS ASSOCIATED UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES NEWD AND
DEAMPLIFIES. FARTHER SW IN WARM SECTOR OF EVOLVING LEE CYCLONE OVER
THE SRN HI PLNS...SFC HEATING...LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...AND
RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS /MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 C AT 500 MB/
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION /SBCAPE TO 1500 J
PER KG/ FROM E TX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LWR MS VLY.

INCREASING INSTABILITY...CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW... AND INCREASING
UVV WITH APPROACHING UPR TROUGH SHOULD TRIGGER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NRN/ERN TX INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF LA
AND AR BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHER STORMS MAY EVOLVE IN ZONE OF
PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA ON ERN EDGE OF MOIST AXIS OVER THE LWR MS
VLY/CNTRL GULF CST.

50+ KT SW TO WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DMGG WINDS AND HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE
STORMS IN LA/SW MS...WHERE 0-1 KM SRH OF 300 M2/S2 WILL EXIST.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING DEEP SHEAR AND UVV WITH CONTINUED EWD
MOTION OF SRN PLNS UPR IMPULSE SUGGESTS POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF THE
ARKLATEX AND LWR MS VLY STORMS INTO PERHAPS TWO SEPARATE QLCSS.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT...THIS ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES N AND E INTO
PARTS OF TN AND AL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU.

...CA...
FRONTAL BAND OF UPR IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING CA WILL AFFECT
NRN AND CNTRL CA COAST LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...
AND THE LA BASIN BY EARLY EVE. MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES AMIDST
STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND ENVIRONMENT MAY ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
ISOLD CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED DMGG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CNTRL CA CST.
SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY SCTD LOW TOPPED STORMS THAT MAY FORM IN
WAKE OF IMPULSE. FARTHER S...TOPOGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED LOW LVL S TO
SSELY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT TO ENHANCE LOW LVL SRH INVOF
ANY EMBEDDED STORMS ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BAND IN THE LA BASIN. THE
S CA CST MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK FOR ISOLD TORNADOES IF IT
APPEARS THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC RESPONSE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF SRN MEMBER OF UPR VORT.

..CORFIDI.. 01/20/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

Tomorrow:

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Tomorrow (Probs):

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Tomorrow (Text):

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SPC AC 200548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2010

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AL THROUGH SRN
GA...NRN FL AND A SMALL PARTS OF SRN SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN AL INTO NWRN GA AND A
SMALL PART OF SRN MIDDLE TN...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...NOW MOVING INTO SRN CA...EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SERN
STATES THURSDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY OCCLUDE OVER TN
OR KY. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MS...AL AND INTO GA.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD SE OF THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL AL AND SRN GA.
WEDGE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE WRN AND CNTRL
CAROLINAS INTO NERN GA. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COASTS THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER JET EXIT REGION INTERACTS
WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE.

...SERN AL...SRN GA AND NRN FL...

OBSERVATIONS TUESDAY EVENING INDICATE LOW TO MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED TO S TX. THIS PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WILL LIKELY ADVECT NEWD THROUGH SRN AL...SRN GA...NRN FL AND
POSSIBLY SRN SC THURSDAY ALONG A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ATTENDING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN MCS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE SERN
STATES EARLY THURSDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
MLCAPE TO WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG EAST OF ONGOING STORMS...BUT PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS FL AND SRN GA.
STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SRN END OF THIS MCS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
INFLUX OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THEREFORE SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF BECOMING ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT
OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD. HIGHER PROBABILITIES
MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT THAT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL UNDERGO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.

...NRN AL THROUGH NRN GA...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE OVER
PARTS OF AL AND GA IN WAKE OF THE MCS AS COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES NORTH OF UPPER JET AXIS ADVECT EWD AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CAPE VALUES ON THE OPERATIONAL NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL APPEAR OVERDONE DUE TO ACTIVATION OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
SCHEME. DRYSLOT WILL LIKELY ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THIS REGION ALONG
UPPER JET AXIS...AND IF LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. FRONTAL
CIRCULATION AND DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE PRIMARY VORT MAX MAY
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AL INTO
NRN GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER IN
WAKE OF THE MCS...BUT STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG DEEP
SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

...CA...

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO CA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT. THE
BEST DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL RISK OF ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO. SOME RISK MAY ALSO EXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS THE
SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. AREAS OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS INCREASE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A CATEGORICAL
RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 01/20/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

Now, with all of that, the biggest threat(s) in my eyes are going to be heavy rainfall with flash-flooding possible in any areas that get training cells. The HPC has highlighted up to 5" of rain over the next 5 days in these areas, including Middle/SRN TN. As for severe, the bigger threat appears to be tomorrow along the AL/TN/GA borders, where supercells look possible. Due to the amount and type of shear in the atmosphere (for both days), the main threats look to be hail and damaging winds, but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out either. The biggest concern tomorrow looks to be dry slotting, contributing to surface heating, especially in the N AL/N GA/ SRN TN areas (thus the reason for possible supercells).

If anyone else has more input, please feel free to add it.

Looks like mother nature is ready to go this year, and we'll also need to watch the next threat this weekend, as well.
::twocents::

Archiver Bot · Jan 20, 2010, 09:40 AM

Heavy Rain moving into Eastern, TN!

toastido · Jan 20, 2010, 10:32 AM

New SWODY1 limits the bulk of the tornado threat to the immediate coast, while leaving the 2% line generally in-tact from earlier.

Also, it seems to trim back some of the more NE portion of the threat some, but there is a blanket 5% probs from roughly a Springfield to Chattanooga line and west for Hail, and Damaging winds.

toastido · Jan 20, 2010, 11:54 AM

New SWODY2 now includes ALL of middle TN in the slight risk area.

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and of course, the 15% probs, accordingly:

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Quote
SPC AC 201730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE NOSE OF A VERY STRONG UPPER JET EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC
APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE U.S...REACHING THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THIS REGIME BY 12Z
THURSDAY IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE...AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD...WITH
MODELS INDICATING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS
CALIFORNIA/THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST MEXICO.
DOWNSTREAM...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE A
CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD THROUGH
PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST. MODELS
VARY WITH REGARD TO MOTION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS LATTER
FEATURE...NEAR THE CONVERGING BELTS OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. BUT...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO GRADUALLY OCCLUDE AND WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES EAST OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS THEN FORECAST ALONG A
STALLING SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN OR COAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...EASTERN GULF COAST/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS...SOUTH OF THE STALLING FRONT TO THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING OCCLUDING
FRONT/COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA...MAY ALSO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 50-70+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...AND A
40-50 KT PRE-COLD FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WILL SUPPORT
A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES. WHILE FRONTAL FORCING MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
A WEST-EAST ADVANCING LINE OF STORMS...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

...TENNESSEE VALLEY...
BEFORE THE ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL DRYING...MODELS SUGGEST RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
PORTIONS OF ADJACENT STATES. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE... WITH 500
MB TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW -20C...OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY...DESTABILIZATION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE RISK FOR AT LEAST LARGE HAIL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND NORTH OF A 50-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS INTO THE SRN PLATEAU...
AS THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...DESTABILIZATION AND
ENLARGING...CYCLONICALLY CURVED...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LOW-SEVERE PROBABILITIES. THREAT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE/WHEN FRONTAL FORCING AND
NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN EVOLVING BAND OF
CONVECTION. CONVECTION MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS...BUT IT
COULD ENHANCE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A
50-70 KT SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL 850 MB JET.

..KERR.. 01/20/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

Archiver Bot · Jan 20, 2010, 11:56 AM

-keeps an eye on this one-

dwagner88 · Jan 20, 2010, 12:07 PM

It feels like an early spring stormy day out there. Very humid and mild. It appears that PWATS are pretty high as well, judging by the almost tropical nature of the showers moving through and the large drop size.

shadowbird · Jan 20, 2010, 12:55 PM

We have a storm moving through the lower end of Hickman county. The thunder is loud and frequent. The rain has started again and the wind is picking up.
12:54pm.

Archiver Bot · Jan 20, 2010, 01:47 PM

Servo hearing the mighty sounds of thunder and seeing copious amounts of rain falling too! ::rain::

Archiver Bot · Jan 20, 2010, 01:51 PM

Same here. Some claps of thunder and heavy rain. Just as long as it doesn't affect our trip up to D.C. tonight I won't mind. ::rain::

toastido · Jan 20, 2010, 01:52 PM

New SWODY1 has advanced the 5% TOR probs to the north, covering a fairly large area.

Here's the update text:

Quote
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN PLAINS THRU THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF
COAST...

...20Z UPDATE...
...SERN PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS VLY/GULF COAST REGION...
STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
APPEARS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW TURNING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS SLOWING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...BUT INCREASING DISCRETE STORM
ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION BY EARLY
EVENING...AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFLUENT/ DIVERGENT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER IMPULSE. THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION TO
THIS POINT HAS ALLOWED FOR CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
AND DESTABILIZATION...AND THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS BECOMING MORE OF
A CONCERN. THIS RISK MAY NOT BECOME APPRECIABLE UNTIL CLOSER TO
03-06Z...WHEN A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IS PROGGED TO FINALLY INTENSIFY
INTO THE 40-50 KT RANGE...AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. BUT...TORNADOES NOW SEEM MORE OF A PROBABILITY AS FAR
NORTH AS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 1630Z OUTLOOK.

..KERR.. 01/20/201

Eric · Jan 20, 2010, 02:17 PM

Quote from: Cameron K. on Jan 20, 2010, 01:51 PM
Same here. Some claps of thunder and heavy rain. Just as long as it doesn't affect our trip up to D.C. tonight I won't mind. ::rain::

Enjoy your trip to DC. We went a few years ago and thoroughly enjoyed ourselves. We were hoping to go back, but alas, life happened and we found ourselves as parents...

. Be safe!

Archiver Bot · Jan 20, 2010, 02:24 PM

Quote from: Eric on Jan 20, 2010, 02:17 PM
Enjoy your trip to DC. We went a few years ago and thoroughly enjoyed ourselves. We were hoping to go back, but alas, life happened and we found ourselves as parents... . Be safe!

Amazing what kids do to a budget!!! ::faint::

Have a safe trip, Cam ::unclesam:: !!

Eric · Jan 20, 2010, 02:53 PM

Thunder and lightning in the 'Boro.

HWO from OHX concerning tomorrow:

Quote.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE AREA CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING ON ROADS AND MAY CAUSE
SMALL STREAMS TI RISE QUICKLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

Archiver Bot · Jan 20, 2010, 04:00 PM

Based on modeling data I've seen...which granted is limited...most of the instability remains elevated across the state...which should confine the threat to mostly large hail. However...also remember as of the new year we are on a 1 inch minimum as being the severe hail criteria...so in an elevated/hail situation that would be likely to dominate...the number of potential SVRs is going to be a good bit less than before.

Archiver Bot · Jan 20, 2010, 06:52 PM

Heavy Rain here in East, TN. Some Thunder