Apps Runner/Lakes Cutter Snow (Dec 12-14, 2010)

Archiver Bot · Nov 25, 2010, 10:03 AM

Models have been consistent with a snow threat for alot of TN as it's looking like a stalling boundary with southern stream energy forming a secondary low. While Artic air is rushing in behind the front and undercutting the moisture. Something to watch for in the TN valley areas.

DGEX and GFS ptypes for a rough idea

Highslide Image Viewer

Adam · Nov 25, 2010, 10:47 AM

Going to be another situation with the colder air trying to catch up with the moisture, I don't like those situations.

Curt · Nov 25, 2010, 11:14 AM

This system looks almost identical to today...cold air struggles to play catch up with maybe some back end flurries.

Archiver Bot · Nov 25, 2010, 11:38 AM

Quote from: Adam2014 on Nov 25, 2010, 10:47 AM
Going to be another situation with the colder air trying to catch up with the moisture, I don't like those situations.

Beggars cant be choosey

John1122 · Nov 26, 2010, 06:12 PM

The GFS is fairly consistantly showing 1-3 inches for East Tennessee with this one. It's under 120 hours now and it's still showing that per the Twisterdata maps.

Been showing that since this was in the 200+ hour timeframe. Jackson Ky NWS is playing it up much moreso than Morristown, who isn't even speaking of it.

Archiver Bot · Nov 26, 2010, 08:06 PM

Quote from: ctbpharmd on Nov 25, 2010, 11:14 AM
This system looks almost identical to today...cold air struggles to play catch up with maybe some back end flurries.

Yep. The only potential difference for East Tennessee is forcing factors squeezing out more post-frontal snow showers in the northerly flow. Maybe some very minor accumulations but nothing major by any means.

Archiver Bot · Nov 26, 2010, 10:24 PM

I'm posting because I see the NWS has put a 30% chance of snow/sleet in the forecast. Not that I expect something, but it does bring me joys thinking about the soon to come "model watching", the flood of opinions and forecasts, high peaks of optimism followed by deep chasms of despair followed by another optimistic change in the "excitement stock market" here, and many other phenomena associated with winter weather. ::coffee:: ::snowman::

dwagner88 · Nov 26, 2010, 11:00 PM

I'll go ahead and call it. Dusting to a couple of inches in higher elevations, rain in the valleys. I'm not too excited about winter potential yet. I'll gladly take the rain though.

toastido · Nov 27, 2010, 02:37 AM

This system does not impress me. >

Archiver Bot · Nov 27, 2010, 07:03 AM

Quote from: Cameron K. on Nov 26, 2010, 10:24 PM
I'm posting because I see the NWS has put a 30% chance of snow/sleet in the forecast. Not that I expect something, but it does bring me joys thinking about the soon to come "model watching", the flood of opinions and forecasts, high peaks of optimism followed by deep chasms of despair followed by another optimistic change in the "excitement stock market" here, and many other phenomena associated with winter weather. ::coffee:: ::snowman::

If only there was a like button on here.......

Archiver Bot · Nov 27, 2010, 08:00 AM

IMO this is looking like a heavy hitter for the smoky mtns, as they look to get mostly snow with this system. Wouldnt surprise me to here double digit accumulations in such areas as Mt.Leconte. I dont think a dusting to an inch in the east TN valley areas is out of the question either.

I'm on my brothers computer right now so I cant access all my bookmarked model and sounding data.

ams30721us · Nov 27, 2010, 09:10 AM

Yeah looking like a higher elevation system for the 1st.

From Hun:
THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM PER THE GFS/ECMWF SHOULD SWEEP
ACROSS THE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH EVEN COLDER AIR THAN THE
LAST SYSTEM (CONSIDERING THE 1000-500MB THICKNESSES CHANGE). MORE
POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING TUE...WITH
RAINS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. HAVE NOTED
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT FOR OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
BEFORE DRIER AIR FROM THE NW COMPLETELY DRIES OUT PRECIP CHANCES.

From Mrx:
MODELS
DIFFER ON DETAILS...BUT ALL DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE MONDAY. ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL MOVE IN
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND OVER THE HIGHER EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

From Ohx:
FRONT WILL BE
ALONG THE PLATEAU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A BIG COOL DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AND A ML/UL TROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. PCPN MAY BECOME A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

Eric · Nov 27, 2010, 12:08 PM

Quote from: skillsweather on Nov 27, 2010, 12:01 PM
ok i have a question for sunday night will it be windy? like can someone look at the wind data for that night.

The data is READILY available online for EVERYONE'S reading approval.

Thundersnow · Nov 28, 2010, 06:51 AM

FYI, OHX has a "slight chance of rain and snow" before midnight on Tuesday night and then flurries after midnight.

Adam · Nov 28, 2010, 12:18 PM

I am just not seeing the potential for a big snow in middle tennessee at all. It looks less impressive then the last system.